The results are sobering. If there is a one in 100 chance that somebody with the technology will release it, and there are a few hundred individuals like this, then our civilization is doomed on a timescale of 100 years or so. If there are 100,000 individuals with this technology, then the probability of them releasing it needs to be less than one in 109 for our civilization to last 1,000 years.

How biotechnology will soon give almost anyone the power to destroy humanity
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608903/genetic-engineering-holds-the-power-to-save-humanity-or-kill-it/
via Instapaper