The COVID-19 pandemic has created a wartime atmosphere in which dramatic changes suddenly seem possible
Great read via ForeignPolicy.com – really made me think. Here are some of the best quotes
“This much is certain: The pandemic will lead to permanent shifts in political and economic power in ways that will become apparent only later...The coronavirus crisis has been a powerful reminder that the basic political and economic unit is still the nation-state”
What will the future economic system look like, POST-CORONA?
“The economic system we construct after this pandemic will have to be less shortsighted, more resilient, and more sensitive to the fact that economic globalization has far outpaced political globalization…. The coronavirus pandemic is the first crisis since the 1930s to engulf both advanced and developing economies. Their recessions may be deep and long. As in the 1930s, sovereign defaults will likely spike. Calls to restrict trade and capital flows find fertile soil in bad times”
The wartime atmosphere may fade again, but will some of these new ideas persist?
“Perhaps the emergency payments to individuals that many governments have made are a path to a universal basic income. In the United States, better and more universal health insurance might just have been given new impetus. Since we are all on the same side in this war, we may now find the motivation to build new international institutions allowing better risk-sharing among countries. The wartime atmosphere will fade again, but these new institutions would persist”.
The end of travel as usual
“Even as containment measures gradually come off worldwide, people may self-assess their individual risks and decide to curtail travel indefinitely, reversing half a century of rising international mobility… The real risk, however, is that this organic and self-interested shift away from globalization by people and firms will be compounded by some policymakers who exploit fears over open borders. They could impose protectionist restrictions on trade under the guise of self-sufficiency and restrict the movement of people under the pretext of public health. It is now in the hands of global leaders to avert this outcome and to retain the spirit of international unity that has collectively sustained us for more than 50 years”
Have a look at my backcasting piece on The Great Transformation (postcoronafuture)
The gap between the rich and the poor countries will widen even further?
“The gap between rich countries (along with a few emerging markets) and the rest of the world in their resilience to crises will widen further.Economic nationalism will increasingly lead governments to shut off their own economies from the rest of the world”
The Normal Economy Is Never Coming Back!
“The economic fallout defies calculation. Many countries face a far deeper and more savage economic shock than they have ever previously experienced. In sectors like retail, already under fierce pressure from online competition, the temporary lockdown may prove to be terminal. Many stores will not reopen, their jobs permanently lost. Millions of workers, small-business owners, and their families are facing catastrophe. The longer we sustain the lockdown, the deeper the economic scars, and the slower the recovery…
The pandemic and subsequent recovery will accelerate the ongoing digitalization and automation of work—trends that have eroded middle-skill jobs while increasing high-skill jobs during the last two decades and contributed to the stagnation of median wages and rising income inequality.Many low-wage, low-skill, in-person service jobs, especially those provided by small firms, will not return with the recovery”
Watch my short film on post-corona future scenarios, below (just hit play)
A More China-Centric Globalization?
“The COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate a change that had already begun: a move away from U.S.-centric globalization to a more China-centric globalization….if the goal of the United States is to improve the well-being of the American people—whose social condition has deteriorated—it should cooperate with China. Wiser counsel would suggest that cooperation would be the better choice. However, given the toxic U.S. political environment toward China, wiser counsel may not prevail”
