I sometimes use a method I call ‘coming back from the future’ (similar to backcasting) – the idea of using one’s insights and intuition about what is certain to happen, in order to deal with the realities at hand, and be better equipped to create one’s desirable future. (For more, read this CNN summary).
In this context, let’s consider this famous Milton Friedman quote:
“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable”
So, in the spirit of ‘finding alternatives’ here are my observations, grouped in 3 chapters and 12 bullets, ‘back-casting’ from late 2020. And here is a shorter version of my 12 Bullets.
Não haverá normal: futuristas preveem mudanças permanentes pós-coronavírus via DinheiroVivo (PT)
“A crise não acabou rapidamente. Nunca regressámos ao normal”, prevê o futurista, posicionando-se como se estivesse no final deste ano a olhar para trás. As mudanças forçadas por esta pandemia serão permanentes e alcançarão a economia, sociedade, política, ambiente e ciência. Será um impacto similar ao da Grande Depressão e da II Guerra Mundial”
Daniel Araya via Forbes.com: The Revolution After The Crisis
“Where the European Renaissance replaced religious dogmas with humanism, this second global Renaissance will replace market dogmas with a kind of digital humanism. Beyond a neo-feudal class structure administered by capitalist markets, this new era will be negotiated across new technologies and new institutions of government. As the futurist Gerd Leonhard predicts, we will see a second Renaissance rooted in human development as an end itself”
“Em termos mais localizados na Europa, o futurista Gerd Leonhard, também citado pelo DN, prevê a criação de um modelo “Estados Unidos da Europa”, dada a necessidade de os países europeus colaborarem mais de perto. Assim, a Covid-19 vai motivar a “hiper-colaboração” entre os estados europeus, promovendo a emergência da Europa como a nova líder global nos próximos anos 3 anos”
How futurists think we will be working after the coronavirus pandemic is over (ABC News). Gerd Leonhard says the old way of presenting at conferences has been eclipsed by circumstances.
Gerd's realtime feed from around the web
