My March 24 2020 post “A Post-Corona Future – looking back from late 2020” has proven to be somewhat foresightful (as much as that can be said about any forecast, these days:) READ IT HERE
In this post, I use an approach of ‘coming back from the future’ (similar to backcasting). Simply put it’s the idea of using one’s insights and intuition about what is certain to happen, in order to deal with the realities at hand, and be better equipped to create one’s PREFERRED future. (For more, read this CNN summary).
Here is a shorter version: my 12 #postcorona Bullets.
Now, in July 2020, it is becoming clear that we facing a WITH-CORONA Future; anything ‘Post-Corona’ seems to be wishful thinking.
In this context, I quite like Milton Friedman’s quote:
“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable”
It’s PIVOTING TIME.
Daniel Araya via Forbes.com: The Revolution After The Crisis
“Where the European Renaissance replaced religious dogmas with humanism, this second global Renaissance will replace market dogmas with a kind of digital humanism. Beyond a neo-feudal class structure administered by capitalist markets, this new era will be negotiated across new technologies and new institutions of government. As the futurist Gerd Leonhard predicts, we will see a second Renaissance rooted in human development as an end itself”
Não haverá normal: futuristas preveem mudanças permanentes pós-coronavírus via DinheiroVivo (PT)
“A crise não acabou rapidamente. Nunca regressámos ao normal”, prevê o futurista, posicionando-se como se estivesse no final deste ano a olhar para trás. As mudanças forçadas por esta pandemia serão permanentes e alcançarão a economia, sociedade, política, ambiente e ciência. Será um impacto similar ao da Grande Depressão e da II Guerra Mundial”
How futurists think we will be working after the coronavirus pandemic is over (ABC News). Gerd Leonhard says the old way of presenting at conferences has been eclipsed by circumstances
“Em termos mais localizados na Europa, o futurista Gerd Leonhard, também citado pelo DN, prevê a criação de um modelo “Estados Unidos da Europa”, dada a necessidade de os países europeus colaborarem mais de perto. Assim, a Covid-19 vai motivar a “hiper-colaboração” entre os estados europeus, promovendo a emergência da Europa como a nova líder global nos próximos anos 3 anos” via ZAP.pt
7 predictions for the new normal post-pandemic
“Futurist Gerd Leonhard, who is based in Zurich, says the threat of the pandemic has caused a “global reset” that he predicts will take two or three years to iron out. “The rules of capitalism are changing,” he says. “We cannot strictly apply only financial benefits to a relationship, and that’s become clear in the treatment of the virus.” Leonhard predicts that prioritising human wellbeing over the prosperity of individual entities will reshape post-COVID economies. “Consumers will be closely examining company behaviour,” he says. “They will be asking, ‘What did this company do during the COVID crisis? Did they show solidarity?
Gerd’s Essential Insights and Observations: Our With/PostCorona Future
Example Topics
• The economic and business impact: what will the near-future (3-5 years) bring as far as jobs, work, commerce and business in general is concerned? How and when will local / regional economies and global trade be revived? Will the underlying economic logic change (from shareholder focus to stakeholder focus)?
• The impact on investing and markets: as investors are reeling in shock during this utterly uncertain ‘new normal’, divestment in fossil fuels are increasing and funds are shifting to ESGs and impact investing – so what is the future of investing, with/post-corona?
• The geopolitical impact, with a focus on ‘The United States of Europe”, the U.S. (a Suez Moment or A New Renaissance, post-elections?) and China (the ultimate challenge in terms of foresight). New power structures, and new roles of the state (and its leaders). And what about (De)-Globalization)?
• The impact on sustainability, renewable energy and climate change policy: The end of oil is near. What is the future of sustainability, and how will we now tackle the even more urgent climate change crisis? Is Covid19 just a ‘test run for climate emergency’?
• The societal impact: technological domination is everywhere.What about the even more enhanced role of technology, and the threat of tracking and surveillance becoming the new normal. Will technology become as regulated as banking or telecom?
• The personal impact: are we entering a period of new-found human connections and solidarity or a global loneliness epidemic? Has well-being and happiness been redefined in this crisis?
Gerd's realtime feed from around the web
